Tuesday, September 30, 2014

15 Other Notable Games and Predictions

Louisville at Syracuse
With the exception of Maryland/Indiana, none of my throw of the dart picks have worked out too well so far this year. I get to try again here with Louisville. Neither of these teams is an offensive powerhouse, so I imagine it'll be the team who makes the fewest mistakes will win.
My Call: Louisville 21, Syracuse 17

Purdue at Illinois
Glad to have the honor of picking a game that pits two pretty bad football teams. Seriously though, I'm letting the venue make the pick for me. Since this game is in Champagne, I'll to with the Illini. Although it wouldn't surprise me at all if Purdue wins since they do look better and Illinois can't really stop an offense with a pulse. I just don't know if the Boilers have enough of an offensive pulse to pull out this win. Illinois has an offense capable of putting up some points as well which is also playing a factor in this selection.
My Call: Illinois 27, Purdue 24

Florida at Tennessee
Go back 15 years ago and this would be the SEC game of not only the week, but perhaps the SEC game of the year. However, both of these teams have fallen on hard times of late. The Vols appear to be back on their way while the Gators appear to be a team stuck in neutral. My guess is with a week off, Florida will show better than they did in the second half of the Alabama game. However, Tennessee appears to be the team that's better coached and further along in the rebuild phase. Plus the game is in Knoxville, that makes them the pick.
My Call: Tennessee 35, Florida 21

Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Offensive ineptitude vs. Defensive ineptitude in this one. At least the Virginia Tech defense is capable of making a play or two and even though their offense isn't very good, UNC's defense hasn't been able to stop anybody. I'm thinking that will be just enough for the Hokies to even up their conference record at 1-1 in ugly but effective style.
My Call: Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 24

North Carolina State at Clemson
It was a game effort put forward by NC State at home against Florida State, but their defense just couldn't hold up in a 56-41 defeat. Meanwhile, Clemson's offense exploded with a 50 point outing against UNC. My guess is the Wolfpack won't be as up for this one as they were for the FSU game. Combine that with me liking true freshman QB Deshaun Watson and the fact that this one is in Clemson makes the Tigers the pick to win.
My Call: Clemson 37, North Carolina State 27

Buffalo at Bowling Green
Gotta roll with Bowling Green on this one. They've shown me they can score. This one at home is theirs provided they don't make a large number of mistakes.
My Call: Bowling Green 37, Buffalo 20

Navy at Air Force
Salute to the kids who play in this game as we'll see some of them defending our country. This coming Saturday though, they'll be opponents. Air Force was able to force Boise State into seven turnovers in a win. I think the Midshipmen will do a considerably better job of taking care of the ball than the Broncos did; and that'll be enough for them to get out of Colorado Springs with a high scoring win.
My Call: Navy 33, Air Force 28

Oregon State at Colorado
Ugly game for the Beavers on the road at the LA Coliseum, losing 35-10 to USC. Good news for them is their offense should be able to get back on track against a Colorado team that doesn't play very good defense. Bad news is I think the Buffs could score their share of points against the Oregon State defense. The Buffs are getting better, but I don't think they're quite where they need to be and the Beavs need this one badly. They'll take it by a touchdown in Boulder. Big day for Sean Mannion.
My Call: Oregon State 38, Colorado 31

Michigan at Rutgers
Disaster and ineptitude have taken over a once very proud Michigan program. Wolverine fans are wanting both AD Dave Brandon and the head coach, Brady Hoke, fired. Hard to blame them when the team is resorting to basically giving away tickets; not that anyone would really want to see their team get pounded at home by the likes of Utah and Minnesota. Rutgers isn't what I would call a wonderful team, but their defense will rule this day while the offense will eventually get the ball rolling against a Wolverine defense that isn't horrible, but can't do it all by their lonesome. The calls for the firings of Hoke and Brandon grow louder from the Michigan faithful.
My Call: Rutgers 27, Michigan 14

Memphis at Cincinnati
Hard to believe, but I really like this Memphis team. They shouldn't be intimidated by going on the road to play the Bearcats considering how close they played UCLA on the road and then gave Ole Miss all they wanted for a little over three quarters before falling 24-3 in Oxford. Good news for them is they should be able to score plenty more than the three they put on the board against the Rebels. The Bearcats can't really stop anybody. However, they'll most likely give up more than they 24 they gave up since Gunner Kiel and that Cincinnat offense can score plenty of points.  Man... I really want to pick the Tigers, but I'm chickening out and taking Cincy at home by a field goal.
My Call: Cincinnati 41, Memphis 38

Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech
In a pick that I wouldn't be surprised to end up regretting, I'll go with the Canes. I really like their freshman QB plus I'm not quite convinced Georgia Tech is that good. Granted the Yellow Jackets shouldn't have to be that good to beat this Miami team, this is more going on a limb.
My Call: Miami (FL) 27, Georgia Tech 24

Pittsburgh at Virginia
UVA has really surprised me this year. First I made fun of UCLA for being played close by these Cavs, but they came back and upset Louisville a couple weeks later and didn't embarrass themselves on the road on Provo against a good looking BYU team. This week they get to host a Pittsburgh team looking to bounce back from a couple home losses; including a very ugly one last week against Akron. The Panthers make it competitive, but I'm taking the Cavs.
My Call: Virginia 26, Pittsburgh 20

South Carolina at Kentucky
Gotta think Steve Spurrier will have another talk with his team after another home loss; this time at the hands of a Missouri team that got dispatched at home by Indiana the week before. I don't know how much good that talk will do, but I do think they'll bounce back in Lexington with a win. The Cats are getting better under the coaching and recruiting abilities of Mark Stoops, but he is in just his second year at the helm. It'll take a little bit longer before he sees wins over teams that have proven themselves over the long haul. Yes, even when this South Carolina program may be in the midst of somewhat of a transition year themselves. UK puts forth a solid effort though and keeps it close.
My Call: South Carolina 24, Kentucky 16

Boise State at Nevada
My second dart throw pick will be me picking an upset. Give me Nevada.
My Call: Nevada 24, Boise State 23

California at Washington State
If you're a fan of the exact opposite of a defensive struggle I'm expecting the Stanford/Notre Dame game to be, tune into this one if you're lucky enough to get the Pac 12 Network on your satellite or cable provider. I'm not even sure a punter will be needed on either side in this one. But seriously, Washington State has at least proven it can slow down opposing offenses to a degree. The Golden Bears haven't done that, giving up 108 points in their last two games to Arizona and Colorado. Wazzu QB Connor Halliday should be licking his chops for this matchup.
My Call: Washington State 59, California 49

Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)

A 25-8 record of picking the fifth week games leaves me with a 125-31 record for the season. Now things are getting tougher though as we're really getting into the grind of conference play and we've got a few games where ranked teams are going up against one another. Let's see how I respond.

Wake Forest at #1 Florida State
2014 still sees the defending national champions undefeated, but they've been put to the test way more this year than they were at any point a year ago save for the title game against Auburn. They'll catch what would appear to be a little bit of a break this week against a bad Wake Forest team. Wake just can't put up points on the board, there's no chance they'll keep up with Jameis Winston and FSU. Defense rules the day for the Noles as they win convincingly.
My Call: Florida State 38, Wake Forest 6

Arizona at #2 Oregon
U of A made their entire 2013 campaign a worthwhile one when they routed the fifth ranked Ducks a year ago in Tucson in a surprising 42-16 final. Duck players didn't seem too excited about the chance to play in the Rose Bowl again. Arizona made sure they were relegated to the Alamo Bowl. Ka'Deem Carey ran for 4 TDs in that one. Carey is gone though and this Oregon team should have payback on their minds in a Thursday night tussle at Autzen Stadium. Both teams come into this one undefeated; and both were tested their last time out. Oregon escaped Pullman with a 38-31 win over Washington State while Arizona  The Wildcats got a miracle home victory over Cal on a 47 yard hailmary pass from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill in a 49-45 victory. There will be no miracle for U of A this time. Oregon will be focused and ready to take out a year's worth of frustration. They win BIG.
My Call: Oregon 52, Arizona 23

#3 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss
Things were a little tense for the Rebels in the first half, but they eventually pulled away to beat Memphis 24-3 to set up this showdown with the Crimson Tide. I'm fully expecting a defensive struggle in this one. In a hope to be wrong prediction, I am taking Alabama. I just think the Tide have more outlets they can turn to on the offensive side of the ball to come up with that play or two they'll need to win this game. If pounding it on the ground with Yeldon and Henry doesn't work, Amari Cooper will probably make it happen in the air on a long hookup with QB Blake Sims.
My Call: Alabama 21, Ole Miss 13

#4 Oklahoma at #25 TCU
We know Oklahoma is for real. The question needs to be raised about TCU. Yes, they are 3-0 and look considerably improved from a bad 2013 season, but their three wins have come against the likes of Samford, Minnesota and SMU. Best of those wins is Minnesota, a team that at best will be a middle of the road Big 10 team. Fort Worth will be rocking and ready for the Sooners; and I bet the Horned Frogs will be early on as well, but it'll be Oklahoma that gradually takes control of this one in the second half. Sooners by a couple scores.
My Call: Oklahoma 34, TCU 21

#6 Texas A&M at #12 Mississippi State
Second of three huge SEC matchups will pit the maroon colored teams against one another; namely Kenny Hill vs. Dak Prescott in what could be a game that lights up the scoreboard in Starkville. The Bulldogs had this past Saturday off prepping for this one while the Aggies had to rally from 14 points behind to eventually beat Arkansas 35-28 in overtime. Gotta imagine Mississippi State won't want to go up tempo with Texas A&M, instead preferring to use their rushing game led by Prescott and running back Josh Robinson to control the tempo. Prescott is much improved as a passer this season, and that's why I like the Bulldogs to take this one. My expectations are this will be a game that's won by the team who possesses the ball last. MSU has a believer in me after beating LSU on the road.
My Call: Mississippi State 45, Texas A&M 42

#7 Baylor at Texas
Not long ago we would have looked at a game between these two programs as a huge mismatch in favor of the Longhorns. How times have changed! Still a major mismatch, except now it's in favor of the Bears. The Texas defense won't be able to do it all in this matchup. They'd have to force multiple turnovers and the special teams would need a big play or two for the Horns to pull it out. It won't happen. Baylor wins comfortably.
My Call: Baylor 45, Texas 20

Utah at #8 UCLA
Does UCLA seem like a team that rises up or plays down to the level of the competition? I guess it's possible after three not so impressive games against Virginia, Texas and Memphis before blowing out then 15th ranked Arizona State by 35 points on the road. QB Brett Hundley sure was impressive in that game. It wouldn't be too surprising to see the Bruins play down some to Utah's level, but they're still the more talented team here and are at home, so I am taking them to get the win.
My Call: UCLA 34, Utah 20

#14 Stanford at #9 Notre Dame
First real test for the Irish will come in the form of a physical, smart Stanford Cardinal team in South Bend. Sorry, but Michigan doesn't count this year. If you like a grind it out type of game where the defenses rule the day and there probably won't be a lot of points scored (barring a good deal of sloppiness on one or both sides), this could be the game for you. I am going to take Stanford. But I admit two things... that the Irish certainly have a chance since I expect this game to be close and I'm biased in hoping Stanford wins since I hate Notre Dame.
My Call: Stanford 19, Notre Dame 17

#19 Nebraska at #10 Michigan State
Question facing both these teams is how far has each one of them come? Although Nebraska is 5-0, none of their wins really jump off the page at you. The only decent win of the bunch in my mind was at home against Miami, a program that isn't where it was 10 to 15 years ago. Michigan State has sandwiched three easy wins around a loss at Oregon where they were obliterated in the second half. All in all, I would trust the Spartans more. They're at home and have the more trustworthy QB in this matchup. Looking at their schedule, they should be favored in every one of their remaining games prior to bowl season. If they run the table, will that be enough to get them into the conversation for college football's first annual playoff? We'll find out, but first they have to take care of Big Red. And they will. Ameer Abdullah could keep Nebraska around, but that tough Spartan defense should be able to force Tommy Armstrong to make a couple bad decisions to sway this game their way.
My Call: Michigan State 30, Nebraska 17

Vanderbilt at #13 Georgia
Getting pushed to the limit by a young, talented Tennessee team, Georgia will look to be more convincing this week in conference play as they take on Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been a little bit better since the start of the season, but they just don't have anywhere near enough to contain Todd Gurley nor do they have the offense needed to win this game. In what should be a better performance on the defensive side of the ball in addition to the dominance of the offense, Georgia should cruise in this conference matchup.
My Call: Georgia 45, Vanderbilt 14

Arizona State at #15 USC
According to reports, usual Arizona State starting QB seems "very questionable" to play in this game. If he can't go, the Sun Devils will again turn to Mike Bercovici. He had himself an up and down performance against UCLA. The numbers on the stat sheet of 488 yards thrown for and 3 TD passes aren't bad at all, but the two interceptions (one returned for a score at the end of the first half which really turned the game around) and a fumble really put a damper on his starting debut. Hard to blame him entirely when the opposing team scores 62 points, but he'll need to be better about protecting the ball if he's the guy for ASU in this one. USC bounced back in a big way after the loss to Boston College, trouncing Oregon State 35-10 at the Coliseum. With a very questionable starting QB and a very questionable defense, I'll take the Trojans to up their record to 4-1 on the season. I expect a better effort and performance here though from ASU than they one they put up against UCLA.
My Call: USC 42, Arizona State 31

#17 Wisconsin at Northwestern
Surprisingly easy win for Northwestern over Penn State on the road hasn't made me a believer yet. Gotta take the Badgers and Melvin Gordon. Granted not by a ton since Wisconsin hasn't exactly looked that brilliant themselves this year.
My Call: Wisconsin 28, Northwestern 17

Utah State at #18 BYU
Led by Taysom Hill, the Cougars should prove to be just a bit too much for Utah State. Granted Chuckie Keeton will certainly try matching Hill point for point and he'll put forth a solid effort, but he and the Aggies will come up about 12 points or so short.
My Call: BYU 35, Utah State 23

#20 Ohio State at Maryland
Watch out, Ohio State! The Terps feature a high scoring offense and the Buckeye defense has a lot of issues, so I think that could lead to one of those games where the team that has the ball last will win.. Real chance for Maryland to make a statement to the Big 10. While this OSU team may not be one of their better ones, the Buckeyes are still a big name and one of the better teams in a bad conference. They've got a real shot, but I just don't have the guts to make the pick. Buckeyes by a touchdown.
My Call: Ohio State 48, Maryland 41

Iowa State at #21 Oklahoma State
Effort can unfortunately only get a team so far in some cases... and that will be the case for Iowa State in Stillwater. The Cowboy defense should be able to keep the Cyclones offense under control for the most part and their offense will put the game out of reach in the second half.
My Call: Oklahoma State 28, Iowa State 14

SMU at #22 East Carolina
Shane Carden and a high powered East Carolina offense against a SMU team so horrible that SMU legend Eric Dickerson would like to see the program be shut down if it continues to be such an embarrassment for the foreseeable future? It'll be over by halftime. Sad that I don't think 37 points is a wide enough spread for this joke of a game.
My Call: East Carolina 58, SMU 7

Texas Tech at #23 Kansas State
K-State was able to bounce back from the heartbreaker against Auburn, throttling UTEP by 30 points. The Red Raiders put forth a solid effort against Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but Daxx Garmon and three turnovers proved to be a little too much to overcome in a 10 point defeat. I'd expect the same story in this game for Texas Tech, maybe a little more low scoring than 45-35.
My Call: Kansas State 38, Texas Tech 28

Monday, September 29, 2014

Tiger War Game Prediction and Preview (vs. LSU)

Although it had its ups and downs, Auburn got past the first of two Louisiana teams that will visit Jordan-Hare Stadium; topping Louisiana Tech by a final of 45-17 to up their record to 4-0. The Tigers weren't going to lose, but they didn't look too spectacular, leading the Bulldogs by a score of just 24-10 through three quarters. That's when Quan Bray decided enough was enough. He caught his second TD pass of the day from Nick Marshall from 44 yards out on fourth down no less to extend the lead to 31-10 and then returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown to make it 38-10 and it was smooth sailing the rest of the way for Auburn. Now Auburn will have to face a much sterner test from Louisiana State. Linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost were injured against Louisiana Tech as was right tackle Patrick Miller. Head coach Gus Malzahn didn't provide any updates on their conditions after the game. So obviously at this point, it's unknown as to whether or not those guys will be in there against LSU. I'm sure most already know, but in case you couldn't guess, LSU also calls their team the Tigers; hence the Tiger War title. Dating back to 2007, LSU has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two schools. The only Auburn win came in 2010 when they had some guy named Cam Newton as their QB. Last year's meeting was a 35-21 LSU victory in which they outscored Auburn 21-0 in the first half. Although Auburn played better in the second half, it was a little too late as Gus Malzahn was handed his first loss as the head coach at Auburn.

Good news for Auburn this year is some of the faces that killed them a year ago are no longer at LSU. The biggest culprit was running back Jeremy Hill. He rushed for 184 yards and three TDs on 25 carries. Hill is now in the NFL as the number two running back for the Cincinnati Bengals as a power compliment to starter Giovani Bernard. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry who caught six passes for 119 yards and a TD is also gone. He is now with the Miami Dolphins. Although Auburn was able to hold WR Odell Beckham Jr. in check for the most part (5 catches for 59 yards), he is now in the NFL with the New York Giants. LSU usually doesn't rebuild though, they reload. While they are younger, make no mistake, there's a ton of talent in Baton Rouge this year. At running back, they like to get a lot of guys involved. Perhaps the most notable of their tailbacks is a true freshman, Leonard Fournette. He has gotten Adrian Peterson comparisons and is considered by a number of recruiting experts to be the best running back to come out of the high school ranks since Peterson himself. Another freshman, Darrel Williams and two seniors, Kenny Hilliard and Terrance McGee, will also see some carries.

Wide receiver is another young but talented group. The leading receiver up to this point is redshirt sophomore Travin Dural. Going into LSU's game vs. New Mexico State, he had 18 catches for 494 yards and 4 TD catches. Yes, he was averaging nearly 27.5 yards per catch. That's insane! Another one of the talented pass catchers for LSU is true freshman Malachi Dupre. He has just nine catches through five games, but he's made them count as four of them have been for touchdowns. True freshman Brandon Harris will be making his first career start at QB for LSU. Harris was once thought to be an Auburn lean during his recruitment, but he wound up at LSU. He came off the bench in relief of sophomore Anthony Jennings in LSU's 63-7 win over New Mexico State in which he threw for 178 yards and 3 TD passes while adding two more rushing TDs. Jennings has been LSU's starter the first five games, but given how Harris has outperformed him by a considerable margin to this point, it was an easy choice for head coach Les Miles. The best offensive lineman for LSU has to be senior La'el Collins. He is projected as a first round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft at this point.

Same deal on defense for LSU, young but extremely talented. Auburn receivers D'haquille Williams, Sammie Coates, Melvin Ray, Ricardo Louis and Quan Bray will have their hands full with the secondary led by Jalen Mills, Ronald Martin and Tre'Davious White. On the defensive line, watch out for experienced defensive ends Jermauria Rasco and Danielle Hunter. The biggest name that jumps out at me at linebacker for them is junior Kwon Alexander. I believe he is their best player at the position; he's another guy Auburn was on during recruiting season a couple years back but instead chose LSU. These Tigers will come to Auburn with a record of 4-1 and ranked 15th in the country in both polls. They got convincing wins over the likes of Sam Houston State, Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico State, had to come from behind to defeat Wisconsin by 4 and lost at home to Dak Prescott and Mississippi State by a final of 34-29 in their only SEC game to this point.

One thing that will have to be different for Auburn if they are to take down LSU for just the second time in eight meetings is Nick Marshall will have to take care of the ball much better in this one than he did a year ago at Tiger Stadium. Nick threw two interceptions and also lost a fumble. He was a bit shaky against Louisiana Tech in this regard. Even though he had no turnovers, there were a couple passes which could have been picked off by Bulldog defenders. It'd be hard to imagine him getting away with some of those same mistakes against SEC level defensive players. The Auburn crowd could play a factor in this one. Harris has looked good and no doubt he's very talented, but a first true road test in front of a hostile crowd is not an easy task regardless of how good someone is. I'd expect Harris to play well, but I like the experience of Nick Marshall and the experience as a whole for Auburn as well as the homefield advantage to come out on top in this one. Marshall comes out sharp and stays that way for a majority of the game and an improved Auburn defense does just enough. This will be their best overall effort since the second half of the Arkansas game.

My Call: Auburn 34, LSU 27